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The Road Ahead for EVs

In today's edition of This Week in Climate, we look at the future for EVs under Trump.
Abigail Bassett
Dec 9, 2024 10 min read
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President-elect Donald Trump has made no bones about the fact that he plans to kill off the $7500 federal tax credit that has helped thousands of people buy new electric vehicles.

It will likely be one of the very first actions that Trump will enact in the effort to “dismantle” President Biden’s IRA, which has pumped billions of dollars into red states around the country, helped bolster the transition to electric vehicles, and cut emissions nationwide. The move will almost certainly throttle the EV industry that has just begun to establish a foothold in the United States. At the same time, it could also offer a significant opportunity to China.

Risks from Cutting the EV Tax Credit

Electric vehicles are still very expensive, with the average transaction price hovering around $56,900 in October (the most recent numbers), according to Kelley Blue Book. That's roughly $9,000 more than the average transaction price of a gasoline or hybrid vehicle. Car sales this year have been relatively flat, but electric vehicles are the fastest-growing segment for automakers.

According to recent reporting by The New York Times, the impact of cutting the $7500 credit could be significant.

“Electric car sales could fall 27 percent if consumers lose the tax break, according to estimates published last week by three economics professors, Joseph Shapiro of the University of California, Berkeley, Felix Tintelnot of Duke University and Hunt Allcott of Stanford. Registrations of electric models are on track to hit 1.2 million this year, and estimates are that there would be about 317,000 fewer registered annually without the credit,” the paper reported.

Without the $7,500 tax credit, EVs become even less affordable for many consumers, particularly in lower and middle-income brackets. The affordability gap will likely push potential EV buyers back to traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, slowing the EV market's growth and adoption. A decline in EV purchases could lead to reduced spending on related products (e.g., charging infrastructure, accessories) and services (e.g., EV maintenance, insurance) and potentially dampen economic activity in these sectors.

A Slowdown in EV Sales Would Hurt Red States the Most

There are also significant economic impacts to consider. Biden's climate legislation has poured billions of dollars into red states in the US. States like South Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama, which Trump carried in the recent election, have benefitted the most from President Biden's climate agenda in concrete ways–from new plants and manufacturing jobs to new technology investments and more. Trump calls Biden's green initiatives the "green new scam," and has claimed he "will terminate [Vice President] Kamala [Harris'] insane electric vehicle mandate, and we will end the green new scam once and for all. The green new scam will end."

In reality, killing off large portions of the IRA and other green legislation passed under Biden will do far more damage in red states than anywhere else. An estimated 85 percent of the announced investments from the IRA have benefitted Republican districts, according to E2 data from August.

"We're at the advent of an economic revolution the likes of which we haven't seen in this country in generations," Bob Keefe, executive director of E2, told the Times. "If it gets rolled back or reduced, it's not liberals that'll be hurt, but working people in rural places."

That’s because over the last few years, major global carmakers, including Hyundai, BMW, Volvo, Toyota, Volkswagen, and others, have announced plans, broken ground on, and even completed mega plants that build everything from batteries and EVs to recycling plants, in red, rural states like Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina.

According to numbers compiled by E&E news by Politico, automakers have invested $320 billion in new car plants, battery manufacturing, and other aspects of electrification. Biden’s clean energy plans were expected to pump as much as $1.2 trillion into the economy over the next decade, the absence of which could erode the US's position in green technology and manufacturing.

The Times also significantly notes that “more than half of 900 clean energy companies surveyed by E2 in October said they would lose business or revenue if the IRA was repealed. Businesses in rural America would suffer the most, according to the survey." This, combined with Trump’s promise to roll back the federal electric vehicle credit, which has helped more than 300,000 consumers get $2 billion in credits since January, could have a significant impact on EV makers and the economy.

Giving China an Edge

As Canary Media points out, "the EV tax credit is not only a climate policy but also a pillar of U.S. industrial policy." It has forced global automakers to rely on battery technology and minerals that do not come from China but rather from the US or friendly partners.

Cutting the EV tax credit would hurt American consumers, workers, and manufacturing, and would also bolster China and big oil. As US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told reporters at the COP29 climate conference in Baku, "It would be so counterproductive… you eliminate these credits, and what do you do? You end up ceding the territory to other countries, particularly China."

China currently makes more than half of the world's EVs, and as Canary points out, ceding ground in the electric transition, manufacturing, and battery development by financially undermining (and throttling the market for) the still-growing EV economy in the US would give China a significant edge in a highly profitable and growing industry.

In fact, the EV credit is one of the many tools that actually help keep one of Trump’s key campaign promises intact: To keep manufacturing jobs in the US and keep Chinese goods out. Cutting the EV tax credit runs in direct opposition to that goal.

Will the EV Tax Credit Survive?

Though Trump is likely to push for the credit’s repeal, it requires Congressional approval. While Republicans hold majorities in both chambers, many representatives serve districts that rely on the EV manufacturing jobs the credit supports. It’s unclear if they’ll back Trump’s plan.

Should EV sales drop by 27% as projected, the economic impact on red-state communities would be severe, with layoffs, reduced shifts, and other cutbacks. The United Auto Workers union opposes the rollback, warning it could lead to hundreds of thousands of job losses. The extent of the damage to a nascent EV industry will depend on how far Trump is willing—and able—to go with his promises.


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The Author

Abigail Bassett